Monero Weekly Roundup - Issue #4

FCMP++ Beta Stressnet Preparation Continues

Development on the Full Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) upgrade continued its progression toward the beta stressnet phase this week, with the project remaining on track for a Q2 2026 target. As previously noted by lead developer CR1337, the team is preparing one final alpha release before transitioning to the beta stressnet, where key scaling decisions will be finalized. The upgrade is designed to expand the anonymity set for each transaction input from the current 16 decoys to effectively the entire Monero blockchain — potentially over 100 million outputs. A concurrent security audit of the CARROT (Cryptonote Address on Ring Transactions Output) integration remains planned ahead of any mainnet deployment. Community members interested in following progress can track updates via the Monero core repository on GitHub.

Seraphis and Jamtis Remain on the 2026–2027 Roadmap

While no new milestone was reached this week specifically for Seraphis — the next-generation transaction protocol intended to replace Monero's current linkable ring signature system — the project remains an active area of research within the Monero ecosystem. Seraphis is paired with Jamtis, a modernized wallet addressing scheme aimed at improving the user experience for receiving funds. Both upgrades are slated for the 2026–2027 timeframe following FCMP++ deployment. Details are tracked in the Monero Project GitHub organization.

The Monero network maintained stable operations throughout the week. According to CoinWarz hashrate data, the global network hashrate hovered around 5.5–5.6 GH/s — consistent with the range observed over the prior weeks. The RandomX proof-of-work algorithm continued to keep mining accessible to CPU miners, with no notable pool centralization events reported during the period. Block rewards remain at 0.6 XMR per block, generating approximately one block every two minutes under current difficulty conditions.

Researcher Warns Quantum Computers Could Deanonymize Monero — Community Responds

The week's most discussed privacy story began on March 6 when veteran crypto researcher @Justin_Bons published a widely-circulated warning that quantum computers could eventually deanonymize Monero by exploiting exposed public keys via Shor's algorithm. Bons argued that whenever a user spends funds, their public key becomes visible on the blockchain, creating a window for a sufficiently powerful quantum adversary to derive the corresponding private key and link transactions to real identities. The warning generated significant coverage and community debate. Countering the urgency, research firms including CoinShares have previously estimated that practical quantum threats to cryptocurrency cryptography remain at least two decades away, and that even then only a small proportion of older-style addresses would be at immediate risk. The Monero community has long acknowledged this as a long-term design concern — the CCS funded post-quantum research proposal explicitly outlines the threat model and proposes a multi-phase research roadmap. Importantly, the FCMP++ upgrade under development introduces forward-secrecy techniques and structural flexibility intended to support future post-quantum transitions, though it does not itself constitute a full post-quantum solution. The consensus from most cryptographers is that the threat is real but not imminent, and that proactive planning — rather than panic — is the appropriate response.

10+ Countries Now Restrict Privacy Coins on Regulated Exchanges

A detailed analysis published by CCN on March 5 confirmed that at least 10 jurisdictions — including Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, the UAE, and several EU member states — now impose bans or strict exchange restrictions on Monero and similar privacy coins. Critically, the report emphasizes that in most cases these restrictions target licensed trading platforms rather than criminalizing individual ownership; holding XMR remains legal in the vast majority of jurisdictions. The regulatory pressure is largely driven by anti-money laundering (AML) compliance requirements. Japan established an early model by targeting exchange listings rather than personal possession, and India's Financial Intelligence Unit extended similar restrictions to Monero, Zcash, and Dash in January 2026. The EU's Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) — which will prohibit regulated exchanges from handling privacy-enhancing cryptocurrencies — is set to take full effect by July 1, 2027, with European exchanges already making compliance adjustments ahead of that deadline. The trend underscores the growing importance of non-custodial tools like P2Pool, atomic swaps, and decentralized exchanges for Monero users who wish to transact without relying on regulated platforms.

Changee.com Launches No-Registration XMR-to-BTC Swaps

Non-custodial exchange platform Changee.com announced on March 2 the full enablement of private XMR-to-BTC swaps with no registration required. The service processes conversions automatically in 5–30 minutes, supports both fixed and floating rate options, and charges fees starting at 0.25%. The platform is fully non-custodial, meaning users retain control of their funds throughout the process. As regulated exchanges continue to delist Monero across multiple jurisdictions, non-custodial swap services such as this represent a growing segment of accessible liquidity options for XMR holders. Users can initiate swaps directly at changee.com/exchange-xmr-btc.

@sethforprivacy's March 7 post reaffirming Monero's default-privacy model gained notable traction with over 42,800 impressions, serving as a measured counter-narrative to the week's quantum computing debate. The post emphasized that mandatory privacy — rather than opt-in mechanisms — is what makes Monero meaningfully different from other cryptocurrencies.

The quantum computing warning from Justin Bons sparked a substantial discussion across the broader crypto community this week. The Crypto Times coverage and U.Today article prompted community members to revisit the existing CCS-funded post-quantum research proposal and the forward-secrecy components of the FCMP++ design, with many noting that Monero's development culture has long treated quantum resistance as a medium-term planning priority rather than an immediate crisis.

The Quantum Canary analysis published this week offered one of the more technically nuanced takes on the debate, distinguishing between different threat models — privacy degradation, theft, and consensus attacks — and noting that while the risk is real and long-term, it remains a governance challenge rather than an imminent exploit threat. The piece was shared in r/Monero and broader crypto forums as a useful counterweight to the more alarmist framing of Bons' original post.

XMR traded in the $340–$365 range throughout the week, with MEXC market data showing the asset at $342.84 on March 3 — up approximately 11% on a weekly basis — before recovering toward the $357–$363 range by March 4–5. According to CoinMarketCap analysis, the $357 level was reclaimed as near-term support as of March 5, representing a constructive technical development. The price action occurred against a backdrop of broader crypto market volatility, with Monero's moves largely driven by the ongoing regulatory narrative and the quantum computing debate rather than broader market correlation.

On-chain, the Monero network continued to show consistent activity. According to CoinWarz network data, block production remained stable at approximately 720 blocks per day at block height 3,625,561. Daily transaction volumes have maintained the steady pattern characteristic of Monero's base usage, independent of short-term price movements.

Comprehensive Analysis Maps the Real Quantum Risk to Monero

Quantum Canary published a detailed analysis this week examining the specific layers of Monero's cryptography that face quantum risk, separating the threat of privacy degradation (tracing transactions) from the distinct threat of theft (deriving private keys to steal funds). The piece argues that Shor's algorithm poses the primary concern — potentially allowing a quantum adversary to solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem and link ring signature members to real spenders — while noting that Grover's algorithm presents a lesser but non-trivial generic speedup against hash functions. Crucially, the analysis concludes that quantum risk remains a long-term design challenge rather than a near-term exploit, and that credible mitigation requires solving three simultaneous constraints: sound post-quantum cryptography, acceptable performance on commodity hardware, and a migration path that does not strand existing users. The piece also noted that NIST has now released finalized post-quantum standards, which provides the broader security community with a set of approved primitives from which Monero's researchers can eventually draw when designing a transition plan.